Friday, October 19, 2007

Team of Destiny

Several "media pundits" talked this week about how the Ducks have the look of a "team of destiny". They said this team is perhaps the most talented duck team ever, and rivals the Joey Harrington led team of 2001. I also believe Oregon is a "team of destiny" but the destiny I see them achieving is one of chokers.

Oregon is a 13 point favorite this Saturday against Washington but anyone who knows anything about anything knows that this line is way way to high and here is why.

1) Jake Locker will butcher the Oregon defense- Not only has Locker run for more yards than either Jonathan Stewart or Jeremiah Johnson, but he is also probably faster than 9 of Oregon's 11 starting defenders. Expect almost 200 yards rushing from Locker in this game. Plus the last time Oregon went against a team that ran elements of the spread they gave up nearly 600 yards of offense to Houston. Not good.

2) Oregon has no good starting receivers- Who is going to catch the ball for Oregon in this game??? Jaison Williams will certainly drop a few passes, Garren Strong will start and have 3 catches for 15 yards, and Aaron Plugrad is 5 foot 3 and weighs 90 pounds and will get broken in half. Not good.

3) Oregon has no good backup receivers- Oregon's backup receivers are: a walk-on whose name Jerry Allen didn't know when he played against WSU, a white receiver whose number is in the 90's, and a JC transfer that was set to redshirt this season until this injuries hit. Not good.

4) Dennis Dixon isn't that good- Dixon is a pretty good quarterback, but he isn't a QB that transcends and elevates the entire team. Like last year Dixon's numbers are built primarily on screen passes and once Washington figures out how to stop that play than Oregon is screwed. Again, not good.

5) Oregon doesn't realize this is a rivalry game- Oregon hasn't played in Seattle since 2003 and no one on Oregon's roster has ever played against a Washington team that was actually good. Nick Reed even said that he had to be told that Washington was a rival of Oregon. Because they have had to play in Eugene the past several years Washington will be super fired up for this game and Oregon won't match their intensity. Not good.

6) Past History- The past years Oregon has collapsed (2006, 2002, 2003) they always had a win in the middle of the losing streak that people though would stop the streak.

2002: 41-14 over Stanford, and they proceeded to lose the rest of their games
2003: 35-00 over Stanford and Oregon then Oregon lost their next game by 32 points.
2006: 30-20 over UCLA before losing 4 of last 6 games.

History repeats itself, again not good.

Final Prediction
Because of all these factors Oregon will lose to Washington 31-17, and the slide to mediocrity and fans calling for Brady Leaf will begin.

Week 8 Picks
I had another winning week last week going 27-24. This brings my total record on the season to 166-164. Clearly I know what I am doing.

Rutgers +1 vs South Florida
Lousiville -3.5 vs Uconn
Syracuse -3.5 vs Buffalo
Miami Ohio -6 @ Temple
Mississippi State +25.5 @ West Virginia
Indiana +7 vs Penn State
Clemson -16.5 vs Central Michigan
Wisconsin -23 vs Northern Illinois
Arkansas -5 @ Ole Miss
South Carolina -13.5 vs Vanderbilt
Wake -3 @ Navy
Georgia Tech -23.5 vs Army
Air Force -2.5 vs Wyoming
Western Michigan +1 vs Ball State
Kansas -3.5 @ Colorado
Rice +1 vs Memphis
SMU -6 vs Tulane
Nevada -7 @ utah State
Tennessee -1 @ Alabama
Nebraska -2 vs Texas AM
Iowa State +30 vs Oklahoma
Missouri -3.5 vs Texas Tech
Cal -1.5 @ UCLA
Notre Dame +17.5 vs USC
Florida State -4.5 vs Miami
Washington +13 vs Oregon
Michigan State +18.5 @ Ohio State
Maryland -4 vs Virginia
Bowling Green +5.5 @ Kent State
Central Florida -2.5 vs Tulsa
East Carolina -6 vs NC State
Stanford +13 @ Arizona
Fresno State -13.5 vs San Jose State
Houston -13 @ UAB
Kentucky +7 vs Florida
La Tech +15.5 vs Boise State
Iowa +7 @ Purdue
Toledo -1.5 vs Ohio
Texas -25.5 @ Baylor
Oklahoma State -3.5 vs Kansas State
Cincinnati -9.5 @ Pittsburgh
Illinois +1 vs Michigan
New Mexico State -9 vs Idaho
LSU -10 vs Auburn
New Mexico -9 @ San Diego State
UNLV -3 vs Colorado State
North Texas +21.5 @Troy
Middle Tennessee State -2 vs Arkansas State
Florida Atlantic -6.5 @Lafayette
FIU +13.5 @ Ul Monroe
Southern Miss -3.5 @ Marshall