Boise Oregon

Oregon looks to continue its solid start this season against a solid, but vastly overrated Boise State team. Everyone is picking this game to be close, but these picks are based on two very flawed assumptions.

Assumption #1: Boise State is a solid team, both offensively and defensively.

HA!! The assumption that Boise State is actually good is mindboggling to me. Lets deal with the offense first.

Not only is Boise Starting 4 new offensive lineman, but they also are starting a redshirt freshman QB. Considering oregon held Jake Locker to 10-28, and Curtis Painer to 26-50 with two INTS (and he is prolly a top 5 QB nationally) I would not ancipate the Boise State QB to do much. The Purdue defensive performance is even more impressive considering it happened on the road. All things considered I would be schocked if the Boise Qb threw for more than 150 yards and less than 3 INTS.

Moving on to the Boise State defense. Boise undoubtedly has a good WAC defense, but how have they done historically against BCS caliber teams?? The answer is not good. Dating Back to 2003, here is how Boise has done defensive against BCS Teams on the road

2003: @ Oregon State 26 points
2004: Louisville 44 points
2005: @ Georgia 41 points, @ Oregon State 30 points
2007@ Washington 24 points (Jake Lockers second game ever.)

Given the fact that Oregon is as good offensively as any of those schools is, I would be shocked if Oregon scored less than 30 points. Also Boise State is replacing 6 starters on defense, so they are probably not a well oiled machine this early in the season.

Even if Boise State scores 20 points (unlikely) there is virtually no chance that they will allow less than 30, which would still mean Oregon covers the spread.

Assumption #2: Oregon's offense will struggle without Justin Roper

HA!! another faulty assumption. By my count Chris Harper has been the quarterback for 4 full drives in short Oregon career. All 4 have resulted in TD's. Also is Chris Harper any worse of a QB than WVU QB Pat White??? So Far in the Colorado- WVU currently airing on ESPN, Pat White has negative passing yards, and WVU is still able to run the ball against a solid defense. I really dont forsee Boise being able to slow Harper, and the Oregon running game down at all.

Jeremiah masoli will play, and probably throw at least 1 INT, but he will also make some plays in the passing game. Against UW, he probably made really good decisions on 15 of the 18 passes that he threw (granted the other 3 should have been INTS) but he just overthrew the receivers. and his numbers could have been really good. Assuming he can be accurate on most of his attempts, I would anticipate Masoli going 12/20 for 150 yards and 1 or 2 INTS. I certainly dont think he will come out and absolutely suck like he did against Utah State. Also Masoli is enough of a runner where Oregon should still be able to run the ball effectively against Boise State with him in the game.

PREDICTION:

Oregon will win this game 42-13 doing the following:

1) close to 400 yards rushing

2) a kick return for a TD

3) a defensive TD

4) throwing 2 INTS, and turning the ball over a total of 3 times.

I also made picks for the rest of the games this week. If you aren't smart enough to figure out which team i picked, than you are definitely smart enough to read this blog and you probably actually enjoy it.


Week 3
Baylor +12 @ Uconn
Temple +28 @ Penn State
Boston College -10.5 vs Central Florida
Northwestern -11.5 vs Ohio
Cincinnati -11 vs Miami Ohio
Mississippi -7 vs Vanderbilt
Mississippi State +7.5 Georgia Tech
BYU -27.5 vs Wyoming
Auburn +2.5 vs LSU
Alabama -9 @ Arkansas
Southern Miss -7.5 vs Marshall
Houston -6 @ Colorado State
Rutgers -5.5 @ Navy
North Carolina -3.5 vs Virginia Tech
Pitt +1 vs Iowa
Wake Forest +4.5 @ Florida State
Michigan State -8.5 vs Notre Dame
Air Force +9 vs Utah
Tulsa -9.5 vs New Mexico
Ball State +3 @ Indiana
Purdue -10.5 vs Central Michigan
Akron +10.5 @ Army
Eastern Michigan +21.5 @ Maryland
Texas AM +3 vs Miami
NC State +7 vs ECU
Buffalo +33.5 @ Missouri
Toledo +7 vs Fresno
Rice +29 vs Texas
utah state -5.5 vs Idaho
SMU +24 vs TCU
Florida -7.5 @ Tennessee
ASU +6.5 vs Georgia
Iowa State +2 @ UNLV
San Jose State +8 @ Stanford
New Mexico State +7 @ UTEP
UCLA +3 vs Arizona
OSU -20.5 vs Troy
Middle Tennesee State +5.5 @ Arkansas State
Tulane -6 vs UL Monroe
Minnesota -6.5 vs FAU
FIU +28 vs South Florida
UL Lafayette -2.5 vs Kent State