Boise Oregon

Oregon looks to continue its solid start this season against a solid, but vastly overrated Boise State team. Everyone is picking this game to be close, but these picks are based on two very flawed assumptions.

Assumption #1: Boise State is a solid team, both offensively and defensively.

HA!! The assumption that Boise State is actually good is mindboggling to me. Lets deal with the offense first.

Not only is Boise Starting 4 new offensive lineman, but they also are starting a redshirt freshman QB. Considering oregon held Jake Locker to 10-28, and Curtis Painer to 26-50 with two INTS (and he is prolly a top 5 QB nationally) I would not ancipate the Boise State QB to do much. The Purdue defensive performance is even more impressive considering it happened on the road. All things considered I would be schocked if the Boise Qb threw for more than 150 yards and less than 3 INTS.

Moving on to the Boise State defense. Boise undoubtedly has a good WAC defense, but how have they done historically against BCS caliber teams?? The answer is not good. Dating Back to 2003, here is how Boise has done defensive against BCS Teams on the road

2003: @ Oregon State 26 points
2004: Louisville 44 points
2005: @ Georgia 41 points, @ Oregon State 30 points
2007@ Washington 24 points (Jake Lockers second game ever.)

Given the fact that Oregon is as good offensively as any of those schools is, I would be shocked if Oregon scored less than 30 points. Also Boise State is replacing 6 starters on defense, so they are probably not a well oiled machine this early in the season.

Even if Boise State scores 20 points (unlikely) there is virtually no chance that they will allow less than 30, which would still mean Oregon covers the spread.

Assumption #2: Oregon's offense will struggle without Justin Roper

HA!! another faulty assumption. By my count Chris Harper has been the quarterback for 4 full drives in short Oregon career. All 4 have resulted in TD's. Also is Chris Harper any worse of a QB than WVU QB Pat White??? So Far in the Colorado- WVU currently airing on ESPN, Pat White has negative passing yards, and WVU is still able to run the ball against a solid defense. I really dont forsee Boise being able to slow Harper, and the Oregon running game down at all.

Jeremiah masoli will play, and probably throw at least 1 INT, but he will also make some plays in the passing game. Against UW, he probably made really good decisions on 15 of the 18 passes that he threw (granted the other 3 should have been INTS) but he just overthrew the receivers. and his numbers could have been really good. Assuming he can be accurate on most of his attempts, I would anticipate Masoli going 12/20 for 150 yards and 1 or 2 INTS. I certainly dont think he will come out and absolutely suck like he did against Utah State. Also Masoli is enough of a runner where Oregon should still be able to run the ball effectively against Boise State with him in the game.

PREDICTION:

Oregon will win this game 42-13 doing the following:

1) close to 400 yards rushing

2) a kick return for a TD

3) a defensive TD

4) throwing 2 INTS, and turning the ball over a total of 3 times.

I also made picks for the rest of the games this week. If you aren't smart enough to figure out which team i picked, than you are definitely smart enough to read this blog and you probably actually enjoy it.


Week 3
Baylor +12 @ Uconn
Temple +28 @ Penn State
Boston College -10.5 vs Central Florida
Northwestern -11.5 vs Ohio
Cincinnati -11 vs Miami Ohio
Mississippi -7 vs Vanderbilt
Mississippi State +7.5 Georgia Tech
BYU -27.5 vs Wyoming
Auburn +2.5 vs LSU
Alabama -9 @ Arkansas
Southern Miss -7.5 vs Marshall
Houston -6 @ Colorado State
Rutgers -5.5 @ Navy
North Carolina -3.5 vs Virginia Tech
Pitt +1 vs Iowa
Wake Forest +4.5 @ Florida State
Michigan State -8.5 vs Notre Dame
Air Force +9 vs Utah
Tulsa -9.5 vs New Mexico
Ball State +3 @ Indiana
Purdue -10.5 vs Central Michigan
Akron +10.5 @ Army
Eastern Michigan +21.5 @ Maryland
Texas AM +3 vs Miami
NC State +7 vs ECU
Buffalo +33.5 @ Missouri
Toledo +7 vs Fresno
Rice +29 vs Texas
utah state -5.5 vs Idaho
SMU +24 vs TCU
Florida -7.5 @ Tennessee
ASU +6.5 vs Georgia
Iowa State +2 @ UNLV
San Jose State +8 @ Stanford
New Mexico State +7 @ UTEP
UCLA +3 vs Arizona
OSU -20.5 vs Troy
Middle Tennesee State +5.5 @ Arkansas State
Tulane -6 vs UL Monroe
Minnesota -6.5 vs FAU
FIU +28 vs South Florida
UL Lafayette -2.5 vs Kent State

Purdue Thoughts

Well a win is a win. The Purdue game went down pretty much as a I thought, except for the fact that Oregon won.

The one thing that did surprise me was how well the Oregon defense played. I was pretty confident that Painter would destroy the Oregon defense, but to my surprise Oregon shut him down. Given the fact that Oregon's defense really struggled on the road last year, the performance this past weekend was a definite surprise, and gives me hope for the rest of the season.

Also I don't think Roper's injury is that big of a deal for several reasons

1) Oregon can beat WSU and BSU with Chris Harper running the ball every single play
2) I still think Jeremiah Masoli will end up being the better QB than Roper long term
3) Roper isnt the long term answer at QB, someone else is (Masoli, Costa, or Harper)
4) Roper looks like some sort of flightless bird. Like an ostrich or maybe a Dodo.

I went 21-19 on my picks for the second straight week, meaning if you follow my betting advice you are now 2.5% richer than you previously were!

Also, I am told by some of my less than loyal readers that the format for my picks sometimes is confusing. This is because they are morons. Regardless i will try to make my picks more user friendly for these dumbasses in the future.

Week 3

Week 3 of the college football season rolls around this week with Oregon off to some god forsaken place in Indiana to play a football game. A lot of Oregon fans are expecting this to be a fairly easy 10-15 point win, but I am a lot smarter than those people so here is why Oregon will LOSE this game.

1) Oregon will give up more than 28 points.

Look at how Oregon's defense performed on the road last year.

Stanford- 31 points allowed
Michigan- Allowed 5 trips in the red zone in the first half
UW- 31 points allowed
Arizona 34 points allowed

The fact is that Oregon is a below average defense when they play on the road. Oregon gave up 30 points on the road 3 times last year to teams that are way worse offensively than Purdue, and Oregon's defense is no better this year than last.

2) Turnover differential

Justin Roper has throw 2 INTS in only 29 passing attempts against maybe the two worst teams in the country. Dennis Dixon threw 1 legitimate INT ALL LAST SEASON.

The most important stat in college football in TO differential and so far Oregob is -3 in TO differential despite playing two terrible teams. Last year After two games Oregon was +6 in TO differential and it was a trend that lasted all season. I am afraid that this year's TO trend will also continue all season.

3) Purdue is probably pretty good

Purdue starts a QB who will probably be the first QB drafted in the 2009 NFL Draft. Normally teams with really good QB's are pretty good. In fact only 1 QB has been drafted in the first round for a team that didn't make a bowl game in the past 8 years (Jay Cutler). So odds are that Purdue is probably pretty good.

So given the facts stated above I expect Purdue to beat Oregon, but I do expect a close game. Oregon has always showed up to play when they have travelled east @ Michigan State, @ Wisconsin, @ Michigan, so Oregon certainly won't get blown out.

I see a score of Purdue 34 Oregon 24.

I also made picks for every div 1 football game this weekend against the spread. I went 21-19-1 in week 1, so stike while I am riding hot!

Week 2
South Florida -3.5 vs Kansas
Baylor -2 vs Washington State
Duke -2 vs Navy
Rice +8 @ Vanderbilt
Mississippi State +10 vs Auburn
Ball State -7 @ Akron
Eastern Michigan -2 vs Toledo
Missouri -26.5 vs Nevada
Texas Tech -35.5 vs SMU
New Mexico State +26 @ Nebraska
UCLA +8 @ BYU
Purdue +8 vs Oregon
South Carolina +7 vs Georgia
Houston -4 vs Air Force
Oregon State -14 vs Hawaii
Fresno State +1.5 vs Wisconsin
Syracuse +28 vs Penn State
Notre Dame +2 vs Michigan
Iowa State +14 @ Iowa
Georgia Tech +6.5 @ Virginia Tech
Clemson -18.5 vs NCSU
Western Michigan -8 @ Idaho
Central Michigan -3 @ ohio
Cal -14 @ Maryland
Stanford +14 @ TCU
Buffalo -6.5 vs Temple
Tennessee -31 vs UAB
Tulane +13 vs East Carolina
Marshall -4 vs Memphis
Uconn -10.5 vs Virginia
Washington +21 vs Oklahoma
USC -11 vs OSU
Arizona -10.5 @ NM
Boise State -16.5 vs Bowling Green
Utah State +24.5 vs Utah
San Jose State -6.5 vs SDSU
ASU -23 vs UNLV
Michigan State -17 vs FAU
Alabama -28 vs Western Kentucky
Southern Miss +3 @ Arkansas State
MTSU +17.5 @ Kentucky
Illinois -25.5 vs UL-Lafayette
North Texas +42 @ LSU

Utah State

Some random thoughts from the Utah State game

-Yea Utah State is bad....but the way Oregon completely dominated them offensively is still pretty cool. Anytime you get 700 yards of total offense you have to be doing something right. Its pretty amazing that Oregon can roll to 700 yards of offense and some legit teams (Arkansas, North Carolina can barely move the ball on 1-AA teams.

-That being said, if Justin Roper gets injured Oregon is totally screwed. I thought Masoli looked pretty good against UW, but he really regressed in this game. Its clear he just doesn't have the comfort level that Roper has. Masoli could be good in time (even better than Roper), but he isn't the answer this season. If Roper gets hurt Oregon is right where they were last season after Dixon went down.

-Harper could be useful as a pure running threat, but anyone who throws the ball like that wont be effective for long stretches at a time

-Oregon's defense still looked pretty good. They haven't been dominate, but it is impressive that they haven't allowed a pass over 20 yards this season. Still no takaways outside the fumble late in the UW game is cause for concern.

- LaGerrate Blount actually wasn't that impressive to me given the hype he had. Kinda slow, but still better than Crenshaw.

-Terrance Scott appears to be a legitimate WR. Still dropped a couple of passes, but nice to see someone other than Williams be thrown the ball.

-The TV commentary was actually muched improved. I guess after 7 season seasons together Giansante and Newman finally figured out how to be average. The game actually streamed really good on the O-Zone, I had no problems at all.

- The purdue game opened with Oregon a 7 point favorite. That line seems a little high to me. I thought Oregon would be favored, but only by 4 or 5. I would bet that the line comes below 7 by kickoff.

Week 2

I missed week 1 of college football because I was to busy getting my haircut for the first time in several years. I went from the "stoner girl look" to the "lesbian going through Chemotherapy look" Sadly i am told the stoner girl was more appealing.

On to other news......

Christopher Balding is off traveling through Europe after the Republican Party refused to endorse him and provide him any funds for his campaign. Hopefully he remembers that he is traveling not as a candidate but as a citizen.

Also I was hanging out with some new people the other day and it was frightening to realize how the new lingo has passed me bye. Here I was thinking that I am in the know with what is going on but these people were using phrases I had never heard before like "he got that swag when he walks.” Anyway I came up with some new phrases that I can use when I hang out with cool people again.

Keep it bowlin’ – Everyone likes bowling (some WAY more than others), so this is a phrase for when you want to tell someone to stay positive. For example, if someone tells you they lost their job, you can just tell them to keep it bowlin’ and that’ll cheer them up.

Ploppers – This means bad. “Did you see that movie last night? It was ploppers.”

Horribly obese – I’m taking this one step further than the people i hung out with. They say things are fat all the time, so I took it a step further. In this case, it means the most beautiful ever. If a foxy dame comes walking in, you can call her horribly obese. I think it might take some time before it catches on, so use this one with caution because some broads may not have heard it yet and could take it the wrong way.

Willy fingers – Perhaps the hardest to explain, but you get willy fingers when you really want to fight someone. “When my neighbor was yelling at me for making to much noise, I really started getting willy fingers.” Your fingers start moving real fast and itching because they want to hit something – that’s the willy fingers.

Anyway.....

Oregon football opened their season up with a ho-hum 34 point win over Washington. I am pretty convinced after that game that Jeremiah Masoli will end up starting for the next 2 and a half years after the game. He just seems to have a swagger that Roper doesn't. Plus Roper is slower than a pregnant Rebecca Noble. I just keep seeing visions of Brady Leaf when Roper pulls down the ball to run.

I also made gambling picks for week 2 of the college football season. Remember gambling winnings are taxable so be sure to have one of your friends actually place the bet for you!

The winner is on the left (Note to all you dumbasses out there...these are picks against the spread not for who is gonna win straight up)

Michigan State -21 vs Eastern Michigan
Syracuse -4 vs Akron
Miami OH +14 @ Michigan
Duke +6 vs Northwestern
Georgia Tech +6.5 @ BC
West Virginia -8 @ East Carolina
Bowling Green -5 Minnesota
Southern Miss +18 @ Auburn
Nebraska -27 vs San Jose State
Tulane +29.5 @ Alabama
Oregon -35.5 vs Utah State
Cincy +22.5 @ Oklahoma
Ohio State -33.5 vs Ohio
Marshall +20.5 @ Wisconsin
Miami +23 @ Florida
Texas Tech -10 @ Nevada
Georgia -24 vs Central Michigan
Oregon State +15 @ Penn State
Air Force +3 @ Wyoming
Washington +9 vs BYU
Notre Dame -22 vs SDSU
Texas AM -2 @ New Mexico
Pittsburgh -13.5 vs Buffalo
Houston +15.5@ Oklahoma State
Kent State+7 @ Iowa State
Wake Forest -7.5 vs Ole Miss
Cal -13.5 @ Washington State
Western Michigan -6.5 vs Northern Illinois
South Florida -13.5 @ Central Florida
Temple +6.5 vs UCONN
Kansas -20.5 vs La Tech
Rice +3 @ Memphis
Utah -21.5 vs UNLV
Arizona -23 vs Arizona
Arizona State -14 vs Stanford
UTEP +26.5 vs Texas
FIU +26.5 @ Iowa
UL Monroe +13.5 @ Arkansas
North Texas -22 vs Tulsa
FAU -12.5 vs UAB
Middle Tennessee State +12.5 vs Maryland