1) Oregon will give up more than 28 points.
Look at how Oregon's defense performed on the road last year.
Stanford- 31 points allowed
Michigan- Allowed 5 trips in the red zone in the first half
UW- 31 points allowed
Arizona 34 points allowed
The fact is that Oregon is a below average defense when they play on the road. Oregon gave up 30 points on the road 3 times last year to teams that are way worse offensively than Purdue, and Oregon's defense is no better this year than last.
2) Turnover differential
Justin Roper has throw 2 INTS in only 29 passing attempts against maybe the two worst teams in the country. Dennis Dixon threw 1 legitimate INT ALL LAST SEASON.
The most important stat in college football in TO differential and so far Oregob is -3 in TO differential despite playing two terrible teams. Last year After two games Oregon was +6 in TO differential and it was a trend that lasted all season. I am afraid that this year's TO trend will also continue all season.
3) Purdue is probably pretty good
Purdue starts a QB who will probably be the first QB drafted in the 2009 NFL Draft. Normally teams with really good QB's are pretty good. In fact only 1 QB has been drafted in the first round for a team that didn't make a bowl game in the past 8 years (Jay Cutler). So odds are that Purdue is probably pretty good.
So given the facts stated above I expect Purdue to beat Oregon, but I do expect a close game. Oregon has always showed up to play when they have travelled east @ Michigan State, @ Wisconsin, @ Michigan, so Oregon certainly won't get blown out.
I see a score of Purdue 34 Oregon 24.
I also made picks for every div 1 football game this weekend against the spread. I went 21-19-1 in week 1, so stike while I am riding hot!
| Week 2 | ||||
| South Florida -3.5 vs Kansas | ||||
| Baylor -2 vs Washington State | ||||
| Duke -2 vs Navy | ||||
| Rice +8 @ Vanderbilt | ||||
| Mississippi State +10 vs Auburn | ||||
| Ball State -7 @ Akron | ||||
| Eastern Michigan -2 vs Toledo | ||||
| Missouri -26.5 vs Nevada | ||||
| Texas Tech -35.5 vs SMU | ||||
| New Mexico State +26 @ Nebraska | ||||
| UCLA +8 @ BYU | ||||
| Purdue +8 vs Oregon | ||||
| South Carolina +7 vs Georgia | ||||
| Houston -4 vs Air Force | ||||
| Oregon State -14 vs Hawaii | ||||
| Fresno State +1.5 vs Wisconsin | ||||
| Syracuse +28 vs Penn State | ||||
| Notre Dame +2 vs Michigan | ||||
| Iowa State +14 @ Iowa | ||||
| Georgia Tech +6.5 @ Virginia Tech | ||||
| Clemson -18.5 vs NCSU | ||||
| Western Michigan -8 @ Idaho | ||||
| Central Michigan -3 @ ohio | ||||
| Cal -14 @ Maryland | ||||
| Stanford +14 @ TCU | ||||
| Buffalo -6.5 vs Temple | ||||
| Tennessee -31 vs UAB | ||||
| Tulane +13 vs East Carolina | ||||
| Marshall -4 vs Memphis | ||||
| Uconn -10.5 vs Virginia | ||||
| Washington +21 vs Oklahoma | ||||
| USC -11 vs OSU | ||||
| Arizona -10.5 @ NM | ||||
| Boise State -16.5 vs Bowling Green | ||||
| Utah State +24.5 vs Utah | ||||
| San Jose State -6.5 vs SDSU | ||||
| ASU -23 vs UNLV | ||||
| Michigan State -17 vs FAU | ||||
| Alabama -28 vs Western Kentucky | ||||
| Southern Miss +3 @ Arkansas State | ||||
| MTSU +17.5 @ Kentucky | ||||
| Illinois -25.5 vs UL-Lafayette | ||||
| North Texas +42 @ LSU | ||||
