Oregon vs Cal Predictions

Before the Michigan game I made several predictions based on Mike Bellotti's history in big games.

I predicted that Garren Strong would throw a pass, that Oregon would run a gadget special teams play, Oregon's offense would move the ball, but have trouble turning those yards into points, and that Oregon's defense would give up yards but not points. In retrospect i nailed all of these predictions except the Garren Strong one. With that being said lets move on to the predictions for the mother of all games.

1)Dennis Dixon will struggle- In his two previous home games this year Dixon arguably could have been pulled from one (Houston), and was merely average in the other (Fresno). Unfortunately for Dixon, Cal's defense is vastly superior to either of those two teams so expect a similar if not worse performance. Also, Dixon seemingly plays timid at home and seems to try and aim his passes rather than throw them with confidence so expect some struggles with throwing the ball.

Cal also has way smarter coaches than Oregon's first 4 opponents and I am sure that they know that they need to hit Dixon every opportunity they get. I was shocked that Michigan repeatedly covered the pitch man on the option rather than hitting Dixon and forcing him to pitch the ball. Not only does Dixon struggle sometimes in making good pitches on the option, (especially going left) but last year he played very poorly (both running and throwing) when he knew he was going to get hit. Expect Cal to come after him a lot.

2) Nate Longshore will also struggle- Longshore has played one good road game in his career and has been absolutely terrible in most of his road outings. Oregon has a good secondary and will force him to play at a high level that I dont feel he can play at. Also Desean Jackson has an injured thumb and he hasn't had more than 45 yards in any game this season so Longshore doesn't have the receiving threats that many thought he would have.

2a) If Longshore is actually good in this game than Oregon will get destroyed.

3) Oregon will have success running the ball- Not only is Cal's best defensive player out with an injury (Linebacker Zach Follet), but Cal's run defense has been shaky this season to begin with. The running backs for both Tennessee and Colorado State had their best games of the season against a Cal defense that lost 7 starters (and its 7 best players) from last years team. Cal undoubtedly has a better defense than anyone Oregon has faced this year, but I don't think they are that much better than Michigan. Oregon probably wont be able to get the big run against Cal, but expect well over 200 yards rushing.

4) Cameron Colvin will fumble- This is my lock of the week. Colvin has always been a great receiver with good hands, but for some reason he holds the ball like a little girl. With the injury to Paysinger, Colvin will make plays and have the ball in his hand a lot, but he will also put one on the turf.

5) Justin Forsett will run for 125 yards on 25 carries- Oregon has a bad run defense so far this season but I think that they will step it up in a big home game. Oregon historicaly plays the run well at home in big games (Michigan 03 is the biggest example) and will presumable play above their abilities in this game. Cal is to good to completely shut down, but I don't think they will put up the monster running stats that some people think.

6) If Cal gets out ot a big lead, Mike Bellotti will call in a bomb threat- Its no secret that in 2003 as Cal was about to go up two scores that Bellotti put a call into the stadium managers and ordered them to cut the power. The 20 minute break allowed Oregon to regain the momentum and in the end they came back to win the game. Expect something equally sneaky this time around if Cal jumps out to a big lead.

7) Ultimate prediction- This game is eerily similiar to last years game against Cal except everything is reversed. Cal is banged up instead of Oregon, the game is in Eugene instead of Berkely, Cal's wins all appear to be against teams that will stink at the end of season (much like Oregon last year with Stanford and Fresno), last year was the biggest game ever in Berkely while this years game is arguably the biggest ever at Autzen, Oregon is looking for redemption this year while Cal was looking for it last year after their game against Tennessee, last year Oregon had the shaky QB and this year Cal does. The stars are aligned for Oregon in this game. Expect Oregon to jump out ot a huge lead and then hang on for a comfortable victory. Oregon 38 Cal 24